Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.774076 2.969758 3.179940 3.423816 3.700717 4.007427 4.375793
2025-02-23 2.481950 2.742860 3.039014 3.404574 3.850246 4.385098 5.090493
2025-03-02 2.290377 2.584193 2.930179 3.375953 3.948213 4.678425 5.717959
2025-03-09 2.148469 2.462276 2.842327 3.348799 4.026917 4.938518 6.328425
2025-03-16 2.044100 2.373513 2.782061 3.342676 4.122012 5.221509 7.013705
2025-03-23 1.977224 2.324196 2.764321 3.385617 4.282191 5.611649 7.941580
2025-03-30 1.884443 2.234265 2.685128 3.334701 4.298263 5.782221 8.537797
2025-04-06 1.801902 2.152137 2.609752 3.280877 4.301065 5.927429 9.117932
2025-04-13 1.715019 2.059411 2.513945 3.189444 4.235468 5.948153 9.459222
2025-04-20 1.679612 2.033275 2.507221 3.226012 4.371659 6.329228 10.647816
2025-04-27 1.656560 2.022138 2.519855 3.291006 4.558851 6.830340 12.292999
2025-05-04 1.633451 2.009335 2.528672 3.349744 4.740752 7.353722 14.242290
2025-05-11 1.585091 1.960004 2.483199 3.321940 4.773022 7.593415 15.569118
2025-05-18 1.542140 1.916513 2.444057 3.301395 4.816036 7.864411 17.161179
2025-05-25 1.500513 1.873120 2.402740 3.274082 4.843143 8.105554 18.823877
2025-06-01 1.462158 1.832866 2.364087 3.248275 4.869900 8.351049 20.704645
2025-06-08 1.431398 1.802349 2.338585 3.242456 4.933949 8.698269 23.349551
2025-06-15 1.413996 1.790464 2.340714 3.283254 5.093830 9.321691 28.131798
2025-06-22 1.376413 1.747622 2.293102 3.234876 5.067649 9.453636 30.455923
2025-06-29 1.340210 1.705734 2.245409 3.183709 5.031090 9.551832 32.779630
2025-07-06 1.297542 1.653140 2.179239 3.096725 4.912341 9.399454 33.212579
2025-07-13 1.284509 1.644250 2.181473 3.131523 5.056390 10.040546 41.200768
2025-07-20 1.277926 1.644670 2.198276 3.193341 5.266537 10.951701 55.800528